I will break down the shots we see and the voiceover we hear. I posted a straight forward breakdown of the trailer without the commentary about the source material on the Game of Thrones Wiki (link). Spoilers for season 2 and the book it is based upon, A Clash of Kings, herein. TV only viewers should think twice before reading on. I use the British Kindle edition of the book for reference so any page numbers will be from that version. The spoilers below do not relate to anything not seen in the trailer or give away any of the endings to character arcs in the second book. They do give away a few surprises relating to introductions. The full breakdown and analysis is after the jump.
I have written similar posts for a few earlier trailers now if you are interested:
I have the benefit of some additional context this time around. Since I last wrote HBO have released some synopses for the first five episodes. The full press release is available at Winter is Coming. In addition HBO have also been releasing character profile featurettes over the past week and there are six available at the time of writing covering Renly, Stannis, Robb, Daenerys, Jon and Joffrey. They are all available back at the Game of Thrones wiki.
We have seen this shot several times before, initially at 0:10 in the "Cold Winds" teaser, then repeated at 0:51 in the "Shadow" trailer, at 0:18 in the "Power and Grace" trailer and at 0:52 in the "Seven Devils" trailer. I think this shot is likely to be Daenerys sending out scouts into the Red Waste as her people try to get across the desert.
At 0:06 we see a close-up of Jorah kneeling to talk to Daenerys. He says "They are too weak to fight, you must be their strength." He is wearing his yellow shirt and they are on desert terrain. This shot crops up in the Daenerys character profile at 1:05. In that video we see an apparent response from Daenerys in the next cut at 1:07 where she turns to Jorah and nods. This is adapted straight from Dany's inner monologue in A Clash of Kings chapter 13 Daenerys I page 139 she thinks "They are not strong...so I must be their strength." To be told this rather than realising it on her own weakens her character slightly but I would rather keep good lines and give them to other characters than lose them to the adaptation process. The framing here seems to fit with a sequence shown in the Daenerys character profile (from 0:00 to 0:10) where Jorah warns her that heading away from the Red Waste will expose her to those that would kill her and take her dragons. In the wider shots of that sequence they are kneeling next to the horse Drogo gave her as a wedding gift, apparently dead. I think he is probably convincing her to press onwards despite their losses in this sequence.
"Three great men, a king, a priest, and a rich man. Between them stands a common sellsword. Each great man bids the sellsword kill the other two. Who lives, who dies? Power resides where men believe it resides; it's a trick, a shadow on the wall, and a very small man can cast a very large shadow."
Jaime following an escape or Theon following his betrayal.
n raiding in the North on the orders of Balon Greyjoy. There is a saddle on the back of the door so I wonder if this is Bran's room. If so this would be Theon and his men capturing Winterfell. This occurs in A Clash of Kings chapter 47 Bran VI on page 487.
At 1:15 A gold cloak stabs a man pinned against the wall. A child rushes past another gold cloak behind him. Light streams into the room from a high window behind the gold cloak. This scene looks like it is taking place in Littlefinger’s brothel to me but I don’t recognise the victim. I wonder if this relates to the murder of Mhaegen and Barra (a whore who was a favorite of Robert's and their bastard daughter) by the City Watch within the brothel. We learn about these events when Tyrion questions Janos Slynt about them in A Clash of Kings chapter 9 Tyrion II but it seems the show is going to put them on screen. The following shot is likely from the same sequence.
I think Osha is undressing for Theon here after he takes Winterfell. In the book he sleeps with a servant named Kyra in A Clash of Kings chapter 51 Theon IV so it seems her role might have been given to Osha. This shot makes me think that I am more likely to be mistaken about Theon being with the Captain's daughter in "The More You Love" at 0:52 and that Osha was in that shot too.
We have seen this once before in the Seven Devils trailer at 1:24 This seems to fit with previous footage we have seen of rioting in King's Landing.
Many thanks for reading and well done if you made it through my thoughts on all 84 shots! Please let me know what you think of my speculation in the comments, particularly if you disagree with anything.